Italian Election Half Time Report
The first day of voting in the Italian general election has finished. It has been illegal to public polls for 14 days now (ouch). Noo exit polls (I think).
Betfair has implied probabilities of leading politicians becoming the next prime minister. They give the inverse of the probability of winning.
Currently betfair has Berlusconi at 1.21 or 83% change of being the next prime minister. This would be the third sack of Rome (Ricimer he's already served as Alaric (95-96) and Genseric (2001-06)